The Emerging Design Talent Crisis

Plus, how vibe coding is already destroying the careers of junior developers, and the rise of designer as influencer.

Earlier this week, I posted the first part of a three-part series about what I call the design talent crisis. If you haven’t read it, please do. I interviewed ten people for the series, including five recent grads and five educators. With AI here and already changing the job market landscape, as people in the industry, we need to consider the long term consequences, especially when it comes to preparing the next generation of designers. 

I shared the essay on a couple of Reddit boards and on LinkedIn. I’d expected some thoughtful discussion on r/UXDesign and some bitching from r/graphic_design but the opposite occurred. Just a few very jaded and mean responses on the UXD forum and more personal stories from the GD one. 

A couple graphic designers had gotten out entirely. User AstroBjorn said they “transitioned into a completely different line of work, something incredibly secure from AI replacement, and full of skills that are genuinely useful in everyday life (home repairs, maintenance, and customer relations).” They claim they make more money now than they did “doing stressful, soul-killing work at an agency, or freelancing overtime for one.”

They go on to mention a quote from the “Godfather of AI” Geoffrey Hinton, who recently said that if he had a child today, he would advise them to become a plumber, indicating that such physical trades are more future-proof in the era of rapidly advancing AI. 

User stuartlogan put into plain words my whole argument in my piece:

The industry kinda shot itself in the foot here. Companies got addicted to "senior talent only" during the good times, then acted shocked when there weren't enough juniors coming through the pipeline.

The Bay Area having 36 entry-level jobs is mental - that's what, one job per design school graduate? Meanwhile I bet there's 500+ "senior designer" postings that have been sitting unfilled for months because everyone wants someone else to train the talent.

What's really wild is seeing companies complain about skill gaps while simultaneously refusing to invest in junior developers. Like... where exactly did you think experienced designers come from? The experience fairy?

Stay tuned for parts two and three. The second piece will explore what companies and design programs should do. And part three will focus on some practical advice for anyone looking for an entry level position today. 

I’ll leave you with this thought. I’m currently drafting this newsletter in Hall H at San Diego Comic-Con waiting for the Project Hail Mail panel. I was at the TRON: Ares panel yesterday which included the writer and director of the 1982 original. Steven Lisberger provided this warning about AI, “Let’s kick the technology around before it starts kicking us around.” Amen. 

Highlighted Links

The “vibe coding” crisis is creating pseudo-developers who can prompt AI to generate code but can't debug or understand what they've built—and careers are already imploding. A developer who proudly built a SaaS with “zero hand-written code” watched it collapse within weeks from security breaches and database chaos he couldn't fix because he didn't understand the underlying code.

 

Elizabeth Goodspeed contextualizes today’s growing design influencers against designers-cum-artists like April Greiman and Stefan Sagmeister. Along with Tibor Kalman, Jessica Walsh, and Wade and Leta, all of these designers put themselves into their work.

What I’m Consuming

If Writing is Thinking… Most people in business don’t fully read long documents, even when important. With AI writing and summarizing, this problem may get worse because no one deeply knows the content. This lack of careful reading happens in many fields and can lead to mistakes or missed details.

compression culture is making you stupid and uninteresting. Our culture values quick summaries over deep understanding. This makes us lose patience with complexity and true learning. Real wisdom comes from slow, thoughtful effort, not instant answers.

The Race to Become the System of Action. AI is changing software by doing the actual work, not just helping run businesses. Native AI tools win users by solving their toughest tasks, gaining control over workflows and data. Success depends on who becomes the main system driving daily actions and decisions.

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